It is the day after the federal election and we take stock of what we know at this point – and what may have gone wrong for some.
Yesterday, in the lead up to the federal election, I published a piece talking about the net results for digital rights and technology might be with the three most plausible outcomes of the election. In it, I mentioned that the best case scenario, even though it wouldn’t really be a positive outcome, would be a Liberal minority government.
While this wasn’t the most plausible outcome, it turned out that a minority Liberal government ultimately was the result we got. Technically, the best plausible case scenario from a digital rights perspective.
With that in mind, I have to ask if any political party can possibly be happy with the results. So, let’s go over what went wrong with everyone and how the aspirations of each party were seemingly not met.
The Conservative Party
On January 6th, the Conservative party had a 24.1 point lead over the Liberal party. Everything seemed to be smooth sailing to a majority government. All Pierre Poilievre had to do was show up at the debates (and even that is highly questionable), attend a few pre-election celebration rallies, and coast all the way into Canada’s political top job. Why even bother putting in the effort at that point when a win was practically a sure thing? After all, what could possibly go wrong with riding high on the MAGA movement that handed Trump the White House?
Well, as it turns out, everything. Justin Trudeau, who has actually taken numerous hits to his reputation, was desperately trying to cling to power and tanking the Liberal’s fortunes. The Conservatives basically counted on this to continue as they just run attack ads that they no doubt spent months putting together.
Yet, this is where things start to go wrong for the Conservative party. Donald Trump was immediately going to work imploding America and burning every international bridge that he could with his insane tariff policies. With Canada’s sovereignty at stake with all the crazy “51st state” insanity, Trudeau responded in precisely the right way that he needed to respond. He argued that there was not a snowballs chance in hell that was happening and that Canada would defend its own interests. Yes, he had announced that he was leaving the party once a new leader was selected, but that negative reputation was quickly being resuscitated by Trump, allowing Trudeau to leave politics on an unexpected high note.
This ultimately pulled the rug out from under the Conservative party talking points from the very beginning. The Conservatives had long planned to attack Trudeau as the ultimate bad Prime Minister and that the Conservatives were the perfect agent of change – the antidote to what ails the country if you will. Well, it’s a much tougher point to make when people are increasingly respecting the incumbent Prime Minister for standing up for Canada’s interests. It was clear at that point that something needed to change for the Conservative party strategy for this election – and fast.
Yet, change didn’t happen very quickly at all. In fact, the Conservative party continued to bank on the old talking points of “change” being needed and that they were the agents of “change” that Canada so desperately needed. This left a political disconnect between prospective voters (not the die hard voting base that the Conservative party kept trying to rally for) who were not really thinking about “change”. Canadians were thinking more along the lines of how best to defend Canada from the senile fascist dictator from across the border. The fact that Poilievre’s brand of Conservatism channels that Maple MAGA movement would also prove to be a big voter turnoff as well thanks to certain supporters wearing that stupid MAGA red hat – the very object detested so much by the more average Canadian.
Things kept getting worse and worse for the Conservative party. When Mark Carney took over for the Liberal party, the messaging from the Conservatives was that Carney was just like Trudeau – a Prime Minister who’s reputation was actively being restored by this whole Trump debacle. It was becoming clear that the Conservative party was not really reading the room, but instead, relying on the feedback from their hardcore base at famed internet Nazi bar, X/Twitter. The media kept asking how Poilievre would respond to Trump’s threats to Canada and all they got was a meek little “knock it off” comment directed at Trump before going back to the standard talking points.
Trump, of course, didn’t help matters by saying that he’d rather deal with Carney than Poilievre. Poilievre tried to spin this as a backhanded compliment to Poilievre’s leadership, but that spin fell flat because Poilievre simply didn’t make the case on how he intends on defending Canada’s interest against American idiotic imperialism.
Faced with rapidly sinking poll numbers, at least some in the party started seeing the water flooding the deck of SS Poilievre. The party brought out Stephen Harper with the hopes of trying to resuscitate the Poilievre campaign and turn things around. The problem was that Harper doesn’t exactly have the greatest reputation at the best of times. Showcasing a creepy fake smile, Harper’s pitch was that Carney and Poilievre both worked under him and he urged people to vote for Poilievre. The massive ad campaign fell flat because that came off as a subtle compliment to Carney. After all, if Harper took Carney under his wing, then Carney must’ve been a good asset to have in the first place.
The wheels were really coming off for the Conservative campaign as the Liberals just kept making gain after gain in the polls (a reality that was responded to with denial and an argument that the polls are clearly wrong). On the last day of advanced voting, they finally got around to releasing a small party platform to try and show Canadian’s that they actually had a plan. The problem there was that many Canadian’s had already voted in advance polls (which were closing on the same day as the release of the platform). It came far too late for a lot of voters.
There was another push by calling the Liberals “clowns”, but the problem with that was that not only did the Conservatives not really make a strong case for what they bring to the table, but also the fact that it was already difficult for many Canadian’s to see what the Liberals were doing wrong. It was a tone deaf attack that completely misread the situation.
On the last day of the election, it seems that full blown panic had finally set in. The party desperately argued how awful it would be for Carney to take over and how it would be terrible for both current and future generations. That messaging came far too late as Canadian’s had largely made up their minds on how they intended on voting (or not voting). Poilievre, by this point, at least finally clued in that things were most certainly not going his way. After Trump argued that Canadian’s should vote for Trump during the election, Poilievre, no doubt understandably angry at one of the reasons he was about to lose the election, retorted by demanding that Trump ‘stay out of the election’. An outburst that was, at the very least, understandable under the circumstances.
After a huge chunk of the votes were tabulated and it was very clear that the Conservatives lost the election that should have been a cakewalk for them, Poilievre used his teeth to wrap some elastics around his arm and shot up on weapons grade copium before walking out on stage to do his concession speech. In that speech, he argued that he looks forward to staying on as leader of the Conservative party and that he was thrilled to have ‘denied the Liberal NDP coalition’.
It was an argument that was wrong on all counts. For one, Poilievre lost his own seat just to add insult to injury to his massive loss. If he was going to be joining with his Conservative colleagues in the House of Commons, it was either going to be through him sitting in the gallery for visitors or by requesting one of his Conservative colleagues to step aside and allow him to win that seat in a bi-election later on. That is assuming the party wants to continue supporting the very guy that cost the party a slam dunk election victory.
Just as failtacular as the leader losing his own seat is the fact that the votes are still being counted. Not only is it still technically possible that the Liberals can squeak by with a razor thing majority, but even if that doesn’t happen, the Liberals only need a couple of extra seats from another party – something the NDP seemingly has more than enough of at this point despite their losses. There was no “denial” of a “coalition” government to speak of. In fact, I’d argue this is the first time this argument was proposed in the first place: and it came after voting was over. It was a concession speech that poetically caps off this election round: failure, denial, delusion, and loss.
The NDP
As I’ve argued for quite some time, the writing was on the wall for the NDP long before the writ was dropped. This came in the form of the abandonment of principles in favour of just sucking up to the Liberal party no matter what. I think the three words that can be repeated over and over again for the NDP is “at what cost?” During the last government, the NDP, under Jagmeet Singh, decided that scoring a political win was worth throwing out everything else in the process.
I personally can’t think of a more obvious example than the debacle of the Online Streaming Act. The Online Streaming Act was a censorship bill designed to trample on the freedoms of the ordinary Canadian. It was designed to ensure the establishment players in the media sector continued to enjoy a captive audience on online platforms like YouTube while downranking everyone else. For the NDP, it was a simple stand on principles. The party doesn’t support internet censorship – especially the censorship of the smaller voices in our community. As a result, there is no way for the NDP to support this legislation.
Yet, support it, they did.
This was a two-fold reason. For one, they were desperately trying to garner Liberal party favour through their supply and confidence deal. This by having their light-hearted pharmacare program in place. This was their “die on this hill” issue. They were getting that healthcare program at all costs. If that meant throwing Canadian’s under the bus through the Online Streaming Act, well, so be it. They desperately wanted something they could call a “win”. Selling out on party principles would be worth it.
… but at what cost?
I know that the NDP would naturally be against the Online Streaming Act. After all, respected NDP politician, Charlie Angus, was briefly permitted to speak his mind on the issue at one point and he wasted no time in calling the Online Streaming Act a “dumpster fire“. Angus knows technology very well and was a star politician in the digital rights world for decades. Once again, he nailed that opinion on the subject. Yet, after that brief moment of clarity for the party, the party went back to doing everything to lick the Liberal parties boot. The party (including Angus) went back to supporting this legislation with very notable silence from their members. Pharmacare was the be all end all goal and they were getting it at all costs.
The thing here is this: if your political party isn’t willing to stand up for your principles, who will? Certainly not the Conservative party or the Bloc. What’s more, the Green Party doesn’t have enough seats to make any significant difference on this front, so even if they wanted to, they couldn’t. For me, I think that reflected back during this election more broadly.
The question here is this: what does the NDP truly represent? Under the political circumstances and time frame of this election, I think for a lot of Canadians, the answer is often a shrug and an “I dunno”. Those Canadian’s would be right. After all, they didn’t stand up for their principles for the most part. All they did was suck up to the Liberals, so what’s the point of voting NDP?
Ultimately, the NDP kicked off this election with having a heck of a lot to prove (since they didn’t bother with that when in power). While they did fall back to their standard argument (albeit technically compelling) that the Conservatives and Liberals represent the large corporate interests and that the NDP represents the interests of ordinary Canadian’s. While that may be true, it is a hard sell to make under the political environment of the US threatening to annex Canada. Sure, it’s nice to have someone represent the interests of ordinary Canadian’s, but how good is that going to be when all Canadian’s could suddenly wake up one day and no longer be part of a country they can call their own? Yeah, you can see how such messaging would have a hard time.
As the election continued, the NDP messaging was that this was about “you”. The argument being that voting NDP will allow you to hold the government to account. Everyone knows the NDP wasn’t going to win, but the ultimate goal is to hold the balance of power (which very well could happen given the information we have today). Still, the messaging doesn’t address the anxiety of having a MAGA wanabee Conservative party and the threats of Trump from across the border. I think this really represents the point where the votes started slipping through the NDP’s fingers.
The final nail in the coffin for NDP success was the argument late in the campaign. That was that voting for Carney means that pharmacare could get deleted altogether. All that effort for that win at all costs was suddenly being presented as a fleeting victory. With a single stroke of a pen, the one political victory they got could get wiped out entirely. The party admitted that they sold out their principles and sacrificed everything over a temporary victory that could disappear overnight. It became increasingly clear how badly the party screwed up the last few years.
When a good chunk of the votes were tabulated, it became clear those mistakes cost the NDP almost everything. For one, their official party status is gone. Further, the Singh had lost his own seat in pretty spectacular fashion – finishing third place.
During Singh’s concession speech, he graciously accepted the defeat and did the one thing he probably should have done – resigned his position as party leader. This was actually a very good move because it was quite clear Singh steered the party badly and caused massive losses. The mainstream media was popping the champagne at the NDP’s misfortune and, for once, the party only had themselves to blame for the staggering losses they took. It wasn’t the typical spin of the mainstream media trying to spin literally everything about the NDP as a “loss”, but rather, the NDP legitimately took a huge loss here.
There are two positive notes about all of this. The resignation of Singh gives the party a chance to rebuild at the earliest possible opportunity. If there is one thing the NDP needs right now, it’s a period of rebuilding and they now have the best possible timeline to do it at this point in time.
The other thing they have going for them is the fact that the Liberals made major seat gains. As a result, they only need a couple seats to hold the balance of power. If the current trends hold true, the Liberals only need an additional 3 seats at minimum to be able to hold the power. The NDP has more than double that with 7 officially projected seats. So, deals can be made still. So, there are options still available to the party despite the massive losses they took.
Right now, the question is how the party intends on moving forward. It could be critical for their potential comeback for the next election, but they do need to hit the ground running. How well it turns out, well, depends on how the NDP conduct themselves moving forward.
The Bloc
If there is one thing that everyone can agree with, it’s the fact that the Bloc did not get a good result this election. If there is an organization saying that the Bloc had a fantastic showing, I’m not aware of it at this point.
While I’m not saying I’m an expert in Quebec politics necessarily, I can make a good guess of what went wrong. That boils down to two names: Poilievre and Trump.
Indeed, the big thing with the Bloc is the constant push to separate from the rest of Canada and be their own nation. That is not even really news that this is the big thing with the Bloc. The problem is that advocating for separation – something they did do during this election – is not really a good example of reading the room.
After all, Trump is threatening to annex Canada and bring it into the US. I can only imagine just how big of a collective “f*** you” that elicits from your average person in Quebec. Many aren’t even happy that they are part of Canada. I can only imagine just how much worse the idea of being part of the US would be. For some, I can imagine that is just spitting on the Quebec identity (being part of the US instead of Canada).
I think for some in Quebec, the realization is that the Conservative party is the one party that stands the best chance of making Canada part of the US. So, with the existential threats coming from the US, many Bloc voters simply opted to vote for the Liberals instead just to keep wonder dork Poilievre out of the big chair. An argument can be made that this actually worked.
While some are arguing that this doesn’t necessarily mean the Bloc brand is dead by any means, it’s still not the showing the Bloc wanted by any means.
The Green Party
Simply put, the Green party wanted at least one other seat. That didn’t happen. They are still stuck at one seat. Honestly, it could be worse. They could have lost the one seat they did have, but that didn’t happen. Status quo can’t be satisfying, but it could be a lot worse I think.
The Liberal Party
Liberal party friendly media have been working over time to hail the fact that the Liberal party won as a major victory for the party, but it’s not as big of a victory as they make it out to be. Mixed in with the typical biased NDP bashing that has become par for the course for their coverage, the mainstream media is constantly referring to the fact that the Liberals were once thought dead back in January to winning the election today.
Technically, this is true, but this perspective conveniently ignores the timeline between January and the election three months later.
By March, everyone was projecting a Liberal majority government. A majority Liberal government was just going to happen. All the Liberals had to do was just present themselves as a response to Trump and total power was theirs. That simply didn’t happen.
In a storyline that sounds like a miniature version of the misfortune of the Conservative party’s misfortune, the Liberals simply didn’t get their victory fully across the finish line. It was thanks to some surprise results in the Ontario region which ultimately determines who wins the election.
I think a part of it has to do with the fact that once you move past the whole idea of the Liberals standing up to Trump, what does the party really stand for? For average voters, that’s a much tougher question than it should have been. After all, promises of increasing housing starts simply vanished part way through the election in favour of making Carney look as Prime Ministerial as possible. I think for Canadians, they wanted more. What is the Liberals going to do for the housing crisis? What about dealing with climate change? Where’s the plan for dealing with general affordability issues? By the end of the campaign, those issues were simply gone and replaced with “look at me, I’m Prime Minister material!”
I think that could have caused some last minute reservations that caused the party to fall short. After all, many analysts have long said that advanced voting would be strong vs the election day voting. That ultimately hints at a sign that the final days of the campaign was actually quite weak and offers a clue as to when things went from an easy win to falling short of that majority government.
The election was supposed to be a slam dunk majority government for the Liberals and that simply didn’t happen. By extension, that is actually a surprise loss for the Liberals despite technically winning the election. The party simply didn’t get what they were hoping for.
Conclusions
Ultimately, I think every party in this election took things for granted. The circumstances and timings were all different, but they did, at one point or another, take for granted that they had it easy for this campaign. As a result, they all respectively squandered their fortunes as they all fell short of what they were hoping for.
Elections are hard fought and if you can’t treat the election seriously, how are you going to be treated seriously by the electorate? Ultimately, the only ones that came out of this election with some reason for hope for the immediate future is the NDP. Yes, the media spent the last two days bashing them in their typical biased coverage, shouting to high heavens how much they badly lost, but at the same time, the loss may be more symbolic than actually concrete. They still have the numbers to hold the balance of power. Yes, they lost seats and their own leader along the way, but in the broader picture, are we really that far removed from the results of the previous election? Not really.
Yes, the numbers have shifted around and there is some different configurations, but the story today is the exact same story we had during the previous election. That is that we are still in a minority government situation and the NDP can hold the balance of power very easily. Every party wanted more in their own ways, but ultimately never got it in the end. Sure, you can argue all day that, for instance, that the NDP lost their official party status, but does that really matter when the math is still effectively the same for getting things passed? Not really. Combine the seats of the Liberals and NDP and you have your majority of votes anyway. Party status is more arguing semantics more than anything else.
At the end of the day, nothing has changed with the political landscape within the federal government. You have the threats of Trump, but the dynamics of the makeup of Parliament ultimately remains effectively the same. Spin all you want, but that is the reality we have today.
